Posted on: January 2, 2023, 01:13h.
Final up to date on: January 2, 2023, 01:15h.
Simply win, child. After which do it once more subsequent week.
Pardon the expropriation of Raiders proprietor Al Davis’s well-known quote. However the method for ending with the highest seed within the AFC is basically fairly easy for the Buffalo Payments, who’re 1 1/2-point favorites tonight in an excellent Monday Evening Soccer matchup in opposition to the Cincinnati Bengals. A victory tonight and a victory subsequent Sunday in opposition to the New England Patriots would imply that each postseason recreation the Payments play in January will happen outside on their residence subject.
And with the storm of the century final week’s information, we must always be capable of safely wager that one more blizzard won’t get in the way in which of the Payments.
For now, although, the Bengals are the impediment tonight in Cincinnati, the place Joe Burrow and his teammates have gone 5-1 this season, the lone loss coming in Week 1 in extra time in opposition to Pittsburgh. So this one isn’t any gimme, which is mirrored within the line: Buffalo has been favored by fewer than 3 factors solely 3 times this season: Week 1 in opposition to the Rams (-2) and Week 6 in opposition to Kansas Metropolis (-2 1/2), successful and protecting each occasions.
However they’re a half-game behind MVP lock Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs heading into tonight’s showdown. A loss would permit Kansas Metropolis to clinch the No. 1 seed and the accompanying bye week by defeating the Las Vegas Raiders subsequent Sunday. The Bengals, in the meantime, can clinch the AFC North subsequent week in opposition to the 10-6 Baltimore Ravens. They’ve an out of doors probability at No. 1, however want to complete 2-0 and have the Raiders beat the Chiefs.
So Buffalo clearly has extra at stake. However the Bengals have a seven-game successful streak and aren’t any pushover.
Monday nights do not get significantly better than this. 🍿
📺: #BUFvsCIN — Tonight 8:30pm ET on ESPN
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/CuYr6ubDbC pic.twitter.com/VxFcmg8xvd
— NFL (@NFL) January 2, 2023
Storylines For This Epic QB Faceoff
Burrow has the Bengals (11-4) a win or tie away from clinching their second consecutive AFC North title — one thing they haven’t accomplished since successful consecutive AFC Central titles in 1981 and ’82. And the third-year quarterback ranked second within the NFL in passing yards (4,260) and TD passes (34) coming into Week 17. If he can handle 350 passing yards tonight, he’ll tie ageless Tom Brady (who had a season-high 432 yards yesterday vs. Carolina) for the spot he held previous to Sunday.
Burrow’s counterpart, Josh Allen, was within the MVP dialog till the Payments misplaced to the Jets and Vikings in Weeks 9 and 10. He’s third within the NFL in TD passes with 32, and if he throws for greater than 293 yards tonight, he will likely be within the prime 5 for complete passing yardage. If he throws for 700 or 800 yards tonight, perhaps he can squeeze Mahomes only a wee bit:
There are 5 names left on the board for NFL MVP:
– Patrick Mahomes (-650)
– Joe Burrow (+700)
– Josh Allen (+1200)
– Jalen Hurts (+1400)
– Justin Jefferson (+15000)#ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/PkQv68YZci
— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) January 2, 2023
Two prolific QBs + Two Very Good Defenses
Burrow’s passing yardage over/beneath is 286 1/2; Allen’s is 260 1/2. For these anticipating an epic aerial encounter tonight, DraftKings has alternate passing yardage traces of +295 for Burrow to throw for 350 yards or extra, and +600 for Allen to do the identical.
Burrow’s season excessive is 481, and he’s coming off a 375-yard recreation final week in opposition to New England. Allen’s season-high is 424 yards in opposition to Pittsburgh in Week 4, and he additionally reached 400 in opposition to Miami in Week 3. If you don’t consider every of those guys goes to attempt to one-up the opposite, you merely don’t perceive the competitiveness {of professional} athletes.
Josh Allen and Joe Burrow going face to face for the primary time.
Tons to be enthusiastic about for the Payments vs. Bengals matchup tonight 👀@michaelkimHD | @LaVarArrington| @MarkdominikNFL pic.twitter.com/EbqKnIAI6N
— Stadium (@Stadium) January 2, 2023
The over/beneath of 49 1/2 is an enormous quantity for many groups, however not these two. Buffalo has had over/unders of fifty or greater six occasions, going over solely as soon as (Nov. 20 in opposition to Cleveland), whereas the Bengals have had over/unders of fifty or extra twice, going beneath each occasions (a 27-15 victory over Miami on Sept. 29, and a 27-24 win over Kansas Metropolis on Dec. 4 when the quantity was 53.)
However that recreation’s level complete of 51 was lower than the mixed totals within the Bengals’ video games in opposition to Atlanta (52), New Orleans (56), Tampa Bay (57), Carolina (63) and Pittsburgh (67). Cincinnati’s protection is ranked fifteenth in yards allowed per recreation, however seventh in factors allowed (20.4). The Payments are ranked sixth in yards allowed and second in factors allowed (17.5), which makes the decision on the over/beneath significantly tough. Each groups are prime 6 in factors scored.
DraftKings was seeing 78 % of deal with coming in on the over at noon Monday; BetMGM was seeing 80% of deal with on the over. Each books had been seeing a roughly 50-50 cut up on unfold beats, and motion was coming in not solely from New York, but additionally from Ohio after that state started legalized sports activities wagering yesterday, Jan. 1. The Buckeye State is predicted to soak up $8 billion in authorized sports activities bets this 12 months, which might make it the fourth-largest sports activities playing state behind New York, Illinois, and New Jersey.
What Seems Promising Amongst Participant Prop Wagers
Burrow and Allen are the headliners. However each have supporting casts whose wager numbers ought to be checked out when contemplating same-game parlays. In New York, some sportsbooks are tightening the principles on what they permit in same-game parlays.
At DraftKings, as an example, the one same-game parlays accessible are those whose prop bets are set by the e-book. The bottom SGP odds for tonight are +425 for over 49 1/2, together with Stefon Diggs (10 TDs) and Joe Mixon (6 TDs) to be anytime TD scorers. No different participant prop parlays at much less that +1000 can be found at DK.
PointsBet is extra versatile beneath the same-game parlay tab, and a parlay on Burrow and Allen each over 300 yards passing is priced at +475, and including on Payments vast receiver Gabe Davis and Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase as anytime TD scorers bumps the chances to +9500. Going with Davis and Chase as TD scorers and reducing the passing yardage props to 200 or extra for each QBs lowers the chances to +2500.
FanDuel’s software program lists the most well-liked SGP wagers, with Chase and Davis as anytime TD scorers mixed with Allen 25-plus dashing yards and Devin Singletary 40-plus dashing yards the most well-liked at +1063.
Simply always remember one thing that’s true each night time: There will likely be an awesome recreation to look at in some sport someplace. And it’s at all times a successful wager to place your toes up, open a tasty beverage, and revel in it. That one hits very single night time.
